Tag Archives: economy

Impact, in case of?

The day Borris has taken a charge people have started assuming that the UK and EU cannot agree on the future relationship and the divorce is messy. Regardless of your position on the debate, it’s hard to deny that such a scenario would cause a degree of volatility to both the economy and the property market.  Whether this would be in the form of a recession-fuelled crash, however, remains a moot point.

All you need to know about Br exit Impact in a no-deal scenario

Impact on Pound:

The pound fell below $1.21 for the first time since January 2017 as concerns mounted that the UK is heading for a no-deal BrexitSterling fell to $1.2085 before edging up to $1.2104, down 0.45% against a stronger US dollar. Against the euro, the pound fell by 0.01% to €1.0978. The dollar rose on currency markets after the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, cut interest rates on Wednesday but indicated there were fewer cuts to come than expected.

Impact on real estate:

UK house prices fell by more than expected in July with consumers turning more cautious as Brexit looms. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said that prices continued to fall last month as the real estate market showed signs of tapering amid the rising risks to the economy from a no-deal Brexit.

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Impact on the Economy

Let’s assume that the UK and EU cannot agree on the future relationship and the divorce is messy. Regardless of your position on the debate, it’s hard to deny that such a scenario would cause a degree of volatility to both the economy and the property market.  Whether this would be in the form of a recession-fuelled crash, however, remains a moot point.

 

Chart showing where the UK's food comes from - 53% from the UK itself and 28% from the EU

Impact on Retailers buying behavior:

Panic buying could mean food retailers run short of some products instead of no-deal Brexit impact. It was assumed that no-deal Brexit could lead to the worst outcome but that’s not the case on the ground. Precautionary measurements by retailers and shop keepers forced them to stock some variants of consumer goods but that limits them to do so in case of fresh fruit and veg. Some of the major Retailers like Morrison, Sainsbury, and Tesco anticipated October as the worst month in history as Britain would be heading towards Christmas and Holiday season.  Warehouse capacity is already strained by the seasonal stock build-up ahead of Black Friday and Christmas, Price hike limits retailers to store more than the capacity

 

Infographic showing goods imported by supermarkets - 79% from the EU

Shoppers anticipated no-deal conditions have pre-ordered consumer goods in large quantities from the companies based in the EU, Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland after a no-deal Brexit have also been warned credit and debit card charges may be higher and payments may take longer.

Impact on Travelling:

If you are planning to make a journey to an EU member state after Brexit, the government is advising you to check you have the right paperwork. Travel to Ireland will not change, even if there’s no deal. You’ll continue to be able to travel and work there in the same way as before but 53 m people travel to EU in 2018 and fares will definitely revise as airlines would no longer be traveling in block countries under agreed terms and conditions so there will surely have an escalation in fares up to maybe 10% . You will require to have a visa if you plan to stay for more than 180 days in any EU block country

Impact on Bank Cards:

You may be charged higher if you use bank cards in any member country of the EU.

Chart showing the number of British-born people living in EU countries

Impact of Importing goods from the EU

Importing goods from the EU is likely to get more expensive when the free movement of goods ends with the UK’s departure. As a member of the EU, UK firms don’t have to pay extra duties, taxes or have customs checks on goods traveling to or from the EU. But after a no-deal Brexit, new rules will apply. UK businesses will need to apply the same processes to EU trade that apply when trading with the rest of the world.

Impact on Borders after no-deal Brexit

Under a no-deal scenario, EU-bound lorries will also need to complete customs declarations, and certain goods may also require physical checks, and this could lead to bottlenecks. In this scenario, a traffic management system known as Operation Brock would come into force on a section of the M20. Traffic would be allowed to flow in both directions on the same carriageway, while lorries would be left queuing on the other side.

Impact on UK students studying in the EU and EU

More than 16,000 British students studied on placements organized by the Erasmus study abroad scheme – in place since the 1980s – in 2016-17. UK universities say they would expect a similar number to be planning to do the same this coming academic year.

I think for America at first, You should think for your country : Trump’ at Davos WEF

A White House proposal on immigration will contain a path to citizenship for up to 1.8 million young people brought into the United States as children as part of a package that also includes $25 billion for a border wall and other security measures.

U.S. citizens and green card holders will only be allowed to sponsor their spouses and minor children to enter the country.

DREAMers who came to the United States as children.If they do a great job, I think it’s a nice thing to have the incentive of, after a period of years, being able to become a citizen,” Trump said. That period would be 10 to 12 years, Trump said.

DREAMERS: Scheme of Trump to incentive people who came to the USA in childhood (1.8 million)

DACA: Deferred Action for Childhoods Arrival, Obama’s scheme to obliged people who came to the USA in childhood (800,000)

I think for America at first, you think for your country first

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I am here for a simple message: There has never been a better time, to hire, to built and invest. America is open for business and we are competitive again. The American economy is by far the largest economy in the world. We just had significant tax cuts.

DREAMers. The bill would provide a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children, known as DREAMers. The number of immigrants who could qualify would be larger than the group protected under the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program DACA. That program covered nearly 800,000 DREAMers, but Miller said the new plan could protect up to 1.8 million people, which is “substantially larger than the DACA population.

That plan mirrors a bipartisan Senate proposal that would allow DREAMers to become citizens after 12 years, or 10 years if they were approved for DACA

U.S. citizens and green card holders will only be allowed to sponsor their spouses and minor children to enter the country.

World’s most oppressed countries.

Today, it is a democracy that finds itself battered and weakened. A quarter-century ago, at the end of the Cold War, it appeared that totalitarianism had at last been vanquished and liberal democracy had won the great ideological battle of the 20th century.

 


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The Freedom in the World 2018 index by the US government-funded non-governmental organization (NGO) Freedom House has found that in its own words:

Democracy is in crisis. The values it embodies—particularly the right to choose leaders in free and fair elections, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— are under assault and in retreat globally.

For the 12th consecutive year, countries that experienced democratic setback outnumbered those that registered gains. The report stated that 88 countries were classed as “free”, while 49 were classed as “not free”.

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The report also criticised some nations for becoming increasingly authoritarian:

The retreat of democracies is troubling enough. Yet at the same time, the world’s leading autocracies, China and Russia, have seized the opportunity not only to step up internal repression but also to export their malign influence to other countries, which are increasingly copying their behavior and adopting their disdain for democracy.

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   A confident Chinese president Xi Jinping recently proclaimed that China is ‘blazing a new trail’ for developing countries to follow. It is a path that includes politicized courts, intolerance for dissent, and predetermined elections

 

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The Gambia’s status improved from Not Free to Partly Free, its political rights rating improved from 6 to 4, and its civil liberties rating improved from 6 to 5 due to the installation of newly elected president Adama Barrow into office in January and the holding of competitive legislative elections in April. Among other openings associated with the departure of former president Yahya Jammeh, exiled journalists and activists returned, political prisoners, were released, ministers declared their assets to an ombudsman, and the press union began work on media-sector reform.

The Freedom in the World report evaluates the state of freedom in 195 countries and 14 territories, assigning a score between 0 and 4 in a series of 25 indicators to give a final score of 100.

The methodology is derived from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, regardless of geopolitical, geographic, ethnic or religious considerations.

Applied VAT on imports is costly for retailers: Post-Brexit concerns erupts

 

Changes outlined in one of the many Brexit-related bills would force companies to pay the levy on goods at the point they enter the UK, rather than after they are sold.

Business groups said the change would create severe problems for UK companies, including cash flow issues and additional bureaucracy.

Business groups say changes will create major bureaucratic headache and cashflow problems for more than 130,000 firms

At least 130,000 UK firms will be forced to pay upfront import VAT once Britain leaves the single market, under which import tariffs are not imposed on goods bought from other EU countries.

More than 100,000 UK companies will be forced to pay VAT upfront after Brexit, under controversial government plans being debated by Parliament this week.

Currently, firms can register with HMRC for permission to import some goods from the EU free of a VAT. They register the charge but the levy is added to the price of the product and paid by the customer.

One small business owner told The Independent the changes would be “disastrous” for her company.

Sally Stephenson, who owns The Pencil Case and The Toy Box, two independent high street shops in Cowbridge, South Wales, said: “My business isn’t big enough to import directly, so I buy stock from wholesalers who do. At the moment EU products are imported into the UK without any VAT added, so those lower costs are passed all the way down the supply chain to end-users like me.

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Under the new system being planned, the Government said, “import VAT is charged on all imports from outside the UK”.

Businesses would then have to pay the tax upfront and claim it back at a later date, meaning they would be spending significant sums of money long before they recoup them in sales.

Industry groups said the change could create major problems for UK importers and retailers.

IMF has high expectations from world’s third biggest economy

The International Monetary Fund Tuesday raised its development conjecture for Japan’s economy this year and next, however, cautioned that contracting work constraints and frail expansion will be a delay the nation’s prospects.

The IMF said it now expects the world’s number three economy to post 1.5 percent GDP development in 2017 and 0.7 percent one year from now, up from a July projection of 1.3 percent and 0.6 percent individually.

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The store referred to a pickup in sends out and more grounded shopper spending for the updated standpoint, after Japan’s economy grew 1.0 percent in 2016.

Be that as it may, the pace of development would debilitate after this year as government jolt blurs, purchaser spending moderates and a lift from ventures connected to the Tokyo 2020 Olympics is “balance by higher imports and slower anticipated development in outside request”, it included.

The 2018 development gauge factors in the probability of the Bank of Japan fixing its record fiscal facilitating approach, the IMF said.

Japan’s economy extended in the April-June period, stamping six straight quarters of increases in its longest winning streak for over 10 years.

Business certainty is likewise at its most elevated in 10 years, yet the nation is as yet pondering low birthrates, a contracting work power and years of on-off flattening.

The report rehashed calls to bring more ladies into the workforce – something Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed to do – with adaptable work routines and more childcare spots, while it additionally approached Tokyo to help close to zero migration.

“In maturing social orders, guaranteeing the moderateness of elderly care is additionally essential, given that, if the mind is excessively costly, it would commonly be the auxiliary workers in families – ordinarily ladies – who bear the weight of unpaid work at home,” the report said.