Tag Archives: trade

May didn’t expect this: Brexit Latest

Where May leaving no stone unturned in bringing EU members and own MP’s together on the same page, Parliament is inching toward a plan to delay Brexit as a way of preventing a chaotic no-deal departure. The pound rose. Opposition leader party John trying best to drag the UK exit from EU on 29th March in case May efforts turned no fruit out. From all major stakeholders, it’s a possible way out but temporary as it will give some extra time to May to keep hopes alive or face worst circumstances.

U.K. Parliament Moves Closer to Stopping a No-Deal Brexit

Key Developments

  • Labour Party is likely to support a backbench plan to delay Brexit and avoid no-deal
  • Brexiteer lawmakers are trying to wreck cross-party attempt to delay
  • Pro-Brexit Trade Secretary Liam Fox hints he could live with a short extension to reach a deal
  • EU Commissioner Moscovici says the extension is a ‘possible scenario’
  • Goldman Sachs sees Brexit delayed till June

Pound Pushes Through Key Level (11:45 a.m.)

The pound broke back through the $1.30 level amid continued market optimism that Parliament moves are reducing the risk of a no-deal Brexit. The currency also got some traction on the overnight report that Labour is likely to support the Cooper-Boles plan to delay Brexit, according to Jeremy Stretch, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

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Brexit-Backers Strike Back at Plan to Delay (11:30 a.m.)

With momentum in Parliament swinging toward delaying Brexit, anti-EU Conservatives are fighting back. They’ve proposed an amendment today that seeks to limit the amount of parliamentary time given to non-government business — the immediate impact would be to kill off the cross-party effort led by Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles to force a Brexit delay if there isn’t a deal.

But the latest amendment will struggle to pass even if the government backs it. Boles and the nearly 20 other Tories who support him aren’t going to vote for it. It will, though, provide an interesting preview of next week’s arithmetic.

On Twitter, Boles said his plan would be modified to “override” the Brexiters’ amendment even if it did pass.

Fox Hints He Could Accept Delay to Get Deal Done (10:10 a.m.)

Trade Secretary Liam Fox told Bloomberg Television in Davos he’s not against an extension of Article 50 in all circumstances. “A delay because we’ve got a deal and want to implement it, that would be one thing,” he said in an interview when asked about Parliament moves to delay Brexit.

It’s worth pointing out there are seven Brexit-related bills currently making their way through Parliament, according to Prime Minister Theresa May’s office, and time is getting tight to pass them all. So a kind of last-minute, short extension to Article 50 might well be needed — even if she does get her deal through Parliament.

The pound edged higher on Wednesday on growing expectations that a no-deal Brexit would be ruled out. And options also indicate investors expect a delay to exit day.

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CBI Slams ‘Fantasy Economics’ of No-Deal Brexit (9:05 a.m.)

The idea of a smooth no-deal Brexit is nothing more than “fantasy economics” and no amount of trade agreements with other countries can compensate for lost trade with the European Union, Confederation of British Industry Director-General Carolyn Fairbairn has warned

Speaking to Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua in Davos, Fairbairn also said the vast majority of firms are not prepared for Britain to leave the EU without a trading agreement in place.

“We are talking to thousands of smaller businesses who say to us, actually we can’t we can’t be ready,” she said. “There is just so much uncertainty, our supply chains are so complex, and they are saying Brexit simply cannot be managed. That is our big concern.”

Dublin on Edge (9:05 a.m.)

In Dublin, nerves are beginning to jangle.

At first glance, the European Commission’s comment Tuesday that a no-deal Brexit would mean a return of a hard border in Ireland is a statement of the obvious. Some, however, interpret the Commission’s intervention as an effort to focus minds in Dublin on the consequences of no deal — and a harbinger of pressure to come to soften the backstop.

Agriculture Minister Michael Creed sought to calm those concerns, telling broadcaster RTE that Brussels stands united behind the withdrawal agreement, and tried to turn the focus back to London, saying the best way to avoid the issue is by Westminster backing the deal.

Fox: No-Deal Brexit Is ‘Real Possibility’ (8:40 a.m.)

U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox is at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he’s telling everyone he meets that a no-deal Brexit is “a real possibility” and that they should get ready.

Liam Fox

“We’re not telling them to ‘prepare for,’ we’re telling them to ‘prepare in case of”’ a no-deal Brexit, he told BBC Radio. In the interview, he also warned that the biggest danger facing Britain — bigger even than a no-deal Brexit — was not abiding by the result of the 2016 referendum. That would be “calamitous,” he said.

Parliamentary moves to delay the U.K.’s departure from the EU if there’s no deal were backed by people who wanted to “delay Brexit indefinitely,” he said. Fox said the solution to the Brexit impasse was in changes to the Irish backstop, and that Prime Minister Prime Minister Theresa May was focusing her efforts on doing that.

Barnier Thinks Brexit Issues Can Be ‘Overcome’ (Earlier)

“I believe that we can overcome the current difficulties when we discuss that issue together,” the EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said in an interview with the Luxembourg Times. A more ambitious future relationship could help make the Irish backstop — the key stumbling block in the U.K. Parliament — “less prominent,” he said.

Barnier said his impression is that the backstop “is not the central issue,” and that the key debate in the U.K. is over what the country’s future should look like. British politicians need to find a “positive majority for something,” he said.

Osborne: Delay ‘Most Likely Option’ (Earlier)

Former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has told the World Economic Forum in Davos “delay looks like the most likely option” in the Brexit process. “It gives some space.”

Police Warns of No-Deal Brexit Risk (Earlier)

Neil Basu, Assistant Commissioner of London’s Metropolitan Police, told the BBC that a no-deal Brexit “would not be good for security.”

Coming Up:

  • Theresa May takes Prime Minister’s Questions at 12 p.m.

Over a year, US- Canada Trade talks: NAFTA resolved

Its been more than a year for US and Canada for been in trade negotiations with eccentric attributes perhaps resolved now. What exactly they were expecting from the negotiation table before leaving was to conclude ToRs of trade. An acrimonious 12 months correspondence that had resulted fruitful outcome.

What actually full text the outcome was before leaving experts little time on Sunday to pore over the specifics on which the deal will ultimately be judged. It was indeed a dedicated effort from Canadian PM which he did achieve a long-sought goal. convincing U.S. President Donald Trump to preserve a trade accord Trump has repeatedly threatened to terminate

It’s a good day for Canada,” Trudeau said as he left a late-night cabinet meeting in Ottawa, declining to take questions. On Twitter, he said, “A good day for Canada & our closest trading partners. More tomorrow…”

Trump, meanwhile, began touting the deal as a fulfilment of his campaign promise to secure a better arrangement for American workers.

“It’s a great win for the president and a validation of his strategy in the area of international trade,” said a senior Trump administration official, saying it includes a “host of provisions that will rebalance our trade relationship with Mexico and Canada.”

How can plunging Lira impact EU market: EU spokesperson

EU spokes person Christian told: We have formed a commission who has taken this charge to monitor whatever is happening with Lira and also its sudden sharp decline. We are aware of all possible facts and outcomes and we are in a state of observation as most of the banks in Turkey are owned by European or Middle Eastern investors. So there is a possibility that this turmoil could impact European markets.

We don’t want to engage in speculations on what will happen on the migration front,” Spahr said

What Erdogan urge to Turks:

This weekend Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Turks to help support the lira by selling their dollars and euros. “If there are dollars under your pillow, take these out,” he told supporters at a rally in the northeastern Turkish town of Unye. 

Consecuencias del Brexit

How this all happened with Lira:

Now, the lira has plumbed new depth, after US President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday that he had approved the doubling of tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium following the detention in Turkey of US evangelical pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges. 

What does this mean for the world?

Experts have warned that this may not be a localised crisis. This morning other emerging market and high-yielding currencies tumbled across the board, “despite the fact Turkey accounts for just one percent of the world economy”, The Daily Telegraph reports.

The crash saw European markets fall sharply when markets opened, particularly in countries with banks exposed to the Turkish currency, such as Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit and France’s BNP Paribas. On Friday, the FTSE fell 75 points, while Germany’s Dax ended the day down 2%.

Reuters reports that emerging market currencies continue “to reel as investors worry about contagion”, exemplified by the South African rand, which dropped 3.1% this morning, while the Russian rouble dropped 0.8% and the Mexican peso 1.5%.

Elsewhere, the euro fell to as low as $1.1365, a 13-month low, before recovering to trade down 0.2% to $1.1382. The dollar, which has rallied in the Turkish lira crisis, gained 0.1% to 96.463 against a basket of major currencies, Reuters adds.

The yen surged 0.6% to 110.265 after earlier hitting a six-week high of 110.11, and the Swiss franc rose 0.5% to $1.1288

 

 

 

 

 

Turkey to shun US electronics including I-Phone (7.1 m users in Turkey) punitive amid rising trade tensions

Turkey President Tayyip Erdogan announced today that the country would boycott all electronics from the United States after President Donald Trump slapped new tariffs on the region that caused the Turkish currency (the lira) to hit an all-time low.

The announcement, which specifically targeted Apple, comes amid rising trade tensions between the two countries (and leaders), but it will barely touch the tech giant.

“If they have iPhone, there is Samsung on the other side. We have Vestel Venuüs in our country,” Erdogan said, referencing a Turkey-based smartphone manufacturer during the announcement to members of his national conservative Justice and Development Party.

“Together with our people, we will stand decisively against the dollar, forex prices, inflation and interest rates. We will protect our economic independence by being tight-knit together.”

The problem with Erdogan’s new strategy is that it will have a much greater effect on the Turkish people than any U.S. company. In other words, Turkey relies on Apple more than Apple relies on Turkey.

Only 2.08 percent of Turkish smartphone users owned a Vestel last December, while 17.41 percent owned Apple iPhones.

That means of the 41.09 million projected smartphone users in Turkey last year, 7.15 million of them used Apple, which is only 1.02 percent of the conservative estimate of more than 700 million iPhone users in the world.

 

Putting that into context, that means there are more than 8.5 times more iPhone users worldwide than there are people in Turkey.

The U.S. and China comprise Apple’s two biggest markets, so this would be a much bigger deal — for both Apple and America — if this electronics ban came from China. Of course, the U.S. is also feuding with over trade, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

China caution US amid investigating foreign firms transfer technology

Trump ordered U.S. trade officials in August to investigate whether Beijing uses market access restrictions or other tools to compel foreign companies to hand over technology. A decision is expected as early as this month, though American officials have set no date.

“If the United States insists on unilateral and protectionist practices that will undermine the interests of China, we will take all necessary measures and resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of China,” Gao said at a regular briefing.

If the investigation concludes Beijing acted improperly, Washington could seek remedies either through the WTO or outside of it.

The United States is disrupting the international trading order by carrying out the “Section 301” investigation under its own laws instead of through the World Trade Organization, said Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng

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